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Mexico, September 15, 2020 – Banco de México (Banxico), Mexico’s central bank, announced that it will extend until February 2021 pandemic related liquidity and credit measures implemented in April and which were to expire 30 September. By renewing these support measures, the government is maintaining facilities aimed at softening the negative economic and market effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which have strained bank operating conditions and investor and consumer confidence. Mexico’s economy remains weak, reflecting uncertainty about domestic policy and the US economic recovery, its largest export partner.

In Mexico, coronavirus-related measures mostly focus on liquidity, funding and some temporary rescheduling of payments, and less on subsidized credit programs or household income support, as in other countries in the region. Because Mexico’s coronavirus infection numbers are still high, risks of extended social distancing rules threaten to delay economic recovery, limit the recovery of employment and maintain low corporate earnings, which will weigh on credit conditions for at least the next 24 months.

Since 21 April, Banxico has made MXN750 billion ($35 billion) available as part of its pandemic-related relief measures (see exhibit), those now extended until February 2021. The central bank has also opened its discount window to a wider range of corporate and government securities (a measure also available to development banks), lowered banks’ reserve requirements, offered secured financing at low rates and asset swaps to small and midsize enterprises (SMEs). The credit facilities directed to the SME segment most affected by the pandemic totaled MXN350 billion, a relatively small amount versus other Latin American governments’ credit lines.

Although the size and reach of the government’s package are more limited than sponsored programs implemented in other large economies in the region, the extension points to the government’s preventative stance against prevailing risks and uncertainties associated with the pandemic. The size of the measures also reflects the current administration’s commitment to fiscal austerity.

The Mexican financial system’s exposure to the SME segment, which has been most vulnerable during the economic downturn, is low and limits the need for government-sponsored aid to the sector. As of June 2020, Mexico’s systemwide loan book had about a 7% exposure to SME loans, versus 18% for Brazil and 24% for Peru. Mexican banks’ loans to large corporations, a segment with a healthier liquidity position than that of SMEs, comprised 60% of gross loans. Additionally, corporates withdrew from banks’ committed credit facilities at the outset of the pandemic, particularly in March and April, when there was a sudden drop in economic activity and heightened market volatility.

At the same time, the government has already announced that it is finalizing the regulatory framework to extend other pandemic related credit forbearance measures, including the waiver on provisioning requirement for renegotiated loans, which will support a second round of relief programs to be offered by banks to customers that continue to struggle to recover repayment capacity amid the deep economic recession.

Credit Outlook: 21 September 2020. Pg. 11
Moodys

Brazil, July 28, 2020 – Brazil’s Confederação Nacional do Comércio de Bens, Serviços e Turismo (the national confederation of commerce of goods, services and tourism or CNC) published its July survey which showed that consumer indebtedness had reached record levels and that delinquency pressures have intensified. The rise in household indebtedness is credit negative for Brazilian banks with significant consumer lending exposures, mainly large retail banks, because it will lead to higher asset risk on banks’ balance sheets and be reflected in rising problem loan levels as well as renegotiations and restructurings. The increase also illustrates the challenges Brazilian consumers face in managing their loan exposures.

The record level of indebtedness is particularly credit negative for Brazilian banks with large exposures to unsecured consumer lending. Such banks include Caixa Economica Federal (Ba2 stable, ba31), Banco do Brasil S.A. (Ba2/(P)Ba2 stable, ba2), Banco Bradesco S.A. (Ba2 stable, ba2), Itau Unibanco S.A. (Ba2 stable, ba2) and Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (Ba1 stable, ba2), which combined account for the lion’s share of consumer lending in Brazil.

Higher indebtedness indicates rising asset risk, particularly amid challenging economic conditions in Brazil because of the coronavirus pandemic. We expect Brazil’s economy to contract by 6.2% this year, with high unemployment negatively affecting household income. Since the onset of pandemic, banks’ problem loans ticked up to 3.3% in April from 2.9% in December 2019, driven largely by rising problem loans for consumers, which rose to 4.1% in April from 3.6% in December 2019 (see Exhibit 1). However, 90-day problem loans have since ticked down to 2.9% for the system as of June 2020 and to 3.6% for consumer loans as banks began renegotiating their loan exposures amid rising asset risk.

Based on available central bank data, BRL594 billion of loans were renegotiated and received loan payment extensions due to the pandemic between 16 March and 29 May, which equates to about 16.5% of total systemwide loans as of June 2020. Loans to households and small and midsize enterprises (SMEs) comprised 91% of these renegotiated loans. The payments were deferred for of up to 180 days and equal 11% of the sum of all renegotiated contracts (principal plus interest), most of which supported SMEs and households.

At the onset of the coronavirus crisis, the central bank eased provisioning requirements for any accruing loans being renegotiated until September 2020. The measures that postpone provisioning will likely delay credit losses, requiring banks to reinforce reserve coverage levels during the third and fourth quarters. In this context, rising household indebtedness to a record level in July is a sign that asset risk pressures will continue to build on banks’ balance sheets

The results of CNC’s survey showed that 67.4% of all Brazilian families have debt outstanding, the highest level on record since 2010. The levels of indebtedness were driven by lower income households, defined by those who earn up to 10x the minimum wage, of which 69% of families were indebted. For households earning over 10x the minimum wage, the level was at 59% as of July, elevated compared with historical levels (see Exhibit 2).

The CNC survey also showed that the percentage of families in the lower income group with debt payments in arrears rose 260 basis points from a year ago to 29.7%, while for higher income groups the level was 11.2% versus 10.6%, indicating rising delinquency pressures. The percentage of households unable to pay off their debts also rose in July across both income levels – up 240 basis points to 13.7% for lower income households and up 150 basis points to 4.9% for higher income households.

For indebted households, 21.6% have more than 50% of their monthly earnings dedicated to debt service, and the largest type of exposure is credit card debt, according to the survey. Following that category is payment by installments via booklets. Both categories are unsecured consumer loan classes, highlighting that banks are particularly susceptible to a deterioration in borrower repayment capacity.

Credit Outlook: 3 August 2020. Pg. 16
Moodys